Thursday, 26 June 2014 15:41

Dairy prices tipped to rise in six months

Written by 

RABOBANK is predicting global dairy price will recover in six months.


In its Dairy Quarterly Q2: Beyond the tipping point, the bank says prices fell as a result of improved milk production in export regions and the easing of forward purchasing by China.


These mechanisms freed more product for other buyers and lowered the need to ration demand with international dairy commodity prices falling 10% to 20% in the three months to mid-June.


"The pull back in Chinese purchasing has been particularly significant, with evidence that the Chinese industry has accumulated excess inventories after a period of vigorous buying, improved local milk production and weaker local sales. Current prices in the international market have dropped below what we see as sustainable in the medium term," explains Rabobank analyst Tim Hunt.


Milk production growth will slow considerably in the second half of 2014 as lower prices are passed to producers, weather normalises and comparables become tougher to exceed. Consumption in export regions will also slowly improve on the back of higher incomes, employment growth and falling retail prices.
"Together these forces should gradually tighten up the market as we progress through 2014," says Hunt.


"However, we expect little improvement in prices until late in 2014 or early 2015, as China works through its accumulated stocks and the world continues to consume the stronger than expected wave of milk produced in the first half of year."


The report notes that one upside risk to keep an eye on is a developing El Nino event. This has the potential to generate unusually dry conditions in South East Australia and excessive rainfall in Argentina – and hence reduced milk production in both of these export regions.

More like this

Featured

Wilmar hands over US$725m ‘court security’ in Indo graft case

Reuters reports that giant food company Wilmar Group has announced it had handed over 11.8 trillion rupiah (US$725 million) to Indonesia's Attorney General's Office as a "security deposit" in relation to a case in court about alleged misconduct in obtaining palm oil export permits.

National

Machinery & Products

Calf feeding boost

Advantage Plastics says it is revolutionising calf meal storage and handling, making farm life easier, safer, and more efficient this…

JD's precision essentials

Farmers across New Zealand are renowned for their productivity and efficiency, always wanting to do more with less, while getting…

» Latest Print Issues Online

The Hound

Don't hold back!

OPINION: ACT MP Mark Cameron isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but he certainly calls it how he sees it, holding…

Sorry, not sorry

OPINION: Did former PM Jacinda Ardern get fawning reviews for her book?

» Connect with Rural News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter